«the World Population» Research Paper
One of the causes of World War II that was unleashed by the German Nazis was their belief that the population multiplies too quickly. The leaders of the Third Reich were seriously worried that because of the population explosion Germans fall into poverty, unable to feed themselves, starve and die, so the planned invasion of the East - to the fertile land. As we remember their struggle for resources has caused the colossal carnage and destruction of dozens of countries. Thus, the problem of the growth of the world population and the overpopulation of Earth is one of the major problems in the world. So let's analyze the causes of the population growth and the problems that it can cause.
According to UN forecasts the population of the Earth for 2050 will be 9 billion people and for 2100 - 10 billion people. According to the latest forecast of the United Nations, by 2025 the world population will reach 8.1 billion people.
Up until 1970, the world population has grown by a hyperbolic law, but now there is progressive slowdown in the world's population. According to demographic studies, the population continues to grow rapidly, although the increase was reduced by almost half compared to 1963, when it reached a peak. According to the UN, in the 1994-2014 the number of people aged over 60 has doubled and nowadays the number of older people in the world is bigger than children under the age of five years.
In 2009, for the first time in human history, the urban population was equal to the number of people of the rural, reaching 3.4 billion people. It is expected that more and more of the world's population will be presented to the citizens (that is, the urban population will continue to grow faster than world population as a whole), which is confirmed by recent data.
In 2050, according the medium variant projection of the United Nations, more than half the world's population will live in Asia, a quarter - in Africa, 8.2% - in Latin America, 7.4% in Europe, 4.7% in North America. According to estimates of the CIA, on July 2014 the world population was 7,174,611,584. In early 2014, at the 47th session of the UN Commission on Population and Development in the report of the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, it was stated that the world population reached 7.2 billion people.
A statistician from the Population Reference Bureau in Washington Wendy Baldwin has calculated that more than 108 billion people were born on the Earth in human history, which began 162,000 years ago.
According to their calculations, the number of people that lives nowadays makes up 6% of all who have ever lived on the planet. Baldwin admits that this number (108 billion people) cannot be absolutely sure, because of population growth and fertility in ancient periods of history is not enough studied by the scientists. At the same time, the researcher considers incorrect statement of some scientists that in the world nowadays live more people live than in the entire history of mankind.
Based on the evaluation agro natural Earth potential is able to feed more than 60-80 billion of people. In this case, the population within the historical framework barely exceeded 100 billion. Prior to the Neolithic revolution Earth was able to feed not more than 3 million people. Projected UN framework set "ceiling" at 8 billion people, at which the population of all countries will seek the maximum possible birth control. Even the traditional patriarchal society will seek to simple reproduction of the population (fertility, equal to 2.05 births per woman).
One of the most accurate population projections was given by English biologist Julian Huxley. In 1964, on the basis of calculations, he concluded that by 2000 the world population will reach 6 billion people. United Nations Population Fund announced that October 12, 1999 the world population has reached 6 billion people. On October 31, 2011 the UN declared Day of 7 billion.
The most significant decline in the population by 2050 is projected by the United Nations in Germany, China, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Thailand, Japan, Ukraine, as well as in Eastern and South-Eastern and Western Asia.
In the works of Heinz von Foerster, Michael Kremer and other scientists shows that population growth in the last six thousand years (up to 60-70 years of XX century)has followed by a hyperbolic law, that is, the absolute rate of world population growth trends were proportional to the square of its population. However, in fact, the population of the entire history of humanity not only increased, but also has decreased abruptly several times in history as a result of the development of new technologies and as a result of devastating wars and protracted conflicts. Population, for example of the Middle East for the last 4000 years has grown 10 times slower than the average in the world. The overpopulation has caused that crowded settlements are often as a result of fatal diseases were turned into forgotten ruins. Prior to the second millennium AD population to the greatest extent concentrated in the steppe and semi-natural areas, and in the last millennium, the largest (hundredfold in England and on the plains of the Rhine) population growth took place in the forest and deciduous forests. Starting from the 1960s, the relative growth rate of the population has become slower and has slow down, and by a hyperbolic world demographic growth was replaced by opposite type of growth, logistic. Since 1989, the growth of population has begun to decline, mainly in the countries of Eastern Europe, and the absolute growth rate of the world population, which can be considered as a logical result of the global demographic transition.
As I have mentioned above overpopulation is one of the major issues in the world and it is kind of demographic crisis, is characterized by abundant resource of the population, (the lack of resources to maintain the hygiene of life) due to lack on the part of society means of subsistence. Overpopulation is a relative value that depends on the resource base of the territory of residence of the population, and also includes an assessment of the development and renewal resources or funds for existence.
The overpopulation is estimated by different methods. First method is a simple estimate of the ratio of the measured population to land area (considering the volume of the soil surface), on which it resides;
The second method is regenerative rate - it is the ratio of the rate of resource consumption of the population to the rate of renewal of these same resources without the amount of resources needed to sustain ecosystems and regenerative nature of the system. According to this method the overpopulation of the Earth will be reached when the population of the world will be more than 200 billion.
The third method is based on the expansion options: estimated the pace of population growth to the rate of progress (economic, social, and so on), which provides the possibility of the emergence of new sources and potential to expand the resource base.
Throughout most of human history, population growth was negligible. The sharp increase in the number of the people has started after the World War II. It took about 1 million years, to the number of inhabitants of the planet has reached 3 billion (in 1960), and about 40 years to double this value, which gave rise to talk about the population explosion.
The current population of the world increases daily by about 250 thousand people. Annual population growth in the world is 90 million, and the total number of people reached 7 billion. The growth rates vary considerably across countries. The main growth of the world's population (about 80%) is in the regions and countries of Latin America, the Indian subcontinent, Africa and Southeast Asia. Rapid population growth in developing countries dramatically exacerbates environmental and social problems. Demographers suggest that the high population growth rate (about 2% per year) will continue until 2090 then the growth rate will decrease, and population stabilization will be achieved at the population 12-13 billion. However, with this increase in population could occur the degradation of natural life-support systems, and can occur an acute food problem.
There are some methods of dealing with overpopulation. The first method is limiting the influx of new citizens. This method includes the policy of birth control - the creation of legal or economic, and religious prerequisites for the stabilization of the population.
The decline in fertility is an essential consequence of economic progress and women's access to education. UN analysts believe that for many poor countries, the threshold level of education for women is a seven-year education that could cause the birth rate decrease by 20% or more. Women with higher levels of education later start a family, are more likely not to marry at all, raising the level of women's education increases the use of contraception that can prevent pregnancy. The second part of the method is the restricting immigration into the country. Increase in consumption of fresh water by the population of the planet is the 0.5-2% per year. At the beginning of the next century is expected that total water withdrawals will be in the amount of 12-24 thousand Km³. Increase of water consumption is caused by rising prosperity of the population.
Freshwater losses increase with increasing its per capita consumption and associated with the use of water for household needs. Most often this is caused by the imperfection of the technology industry, agriculture and public services. In the cities of regional importance in some countries water loss is approximately 10-15 million tons per year and doubling every five years. Large losses of freshwater also occur in mineral deposits, and with construction drainage in urban areas.
The task of providing the world's population with food also has long historical roots. Deficiency of products accompanied mankind throughout its history. With the growth of population greatly increases the importance of this problem.
The most acute problem of shortage of food costs is in the developing countries. In particular, among the poorest countries, where per capita consumption of food energy value is less than 2000 calories a day and continues to decline, is for example Mongolia.
World agricultural production is constrained because of the limited land that is useful for agricultural, both in developed and developing countries. This is caused by the high level of urbanization, the need to preserve forests, and limited water resources. The most acute problem of food shortages is facing poor countries that are not able to devote significant resources to import food.
Also, there is a problem of the mineral resources. Mineral resources are the raw material of any production process, so it have an impact on the economy and can cause serious shocks. Tension in the use of mineral resources associated with limited natural resources, mismatch placement of mineral resources and the level of development of the productive forces, besides mining industry as a whole creates 10% of world GDP.
Thus, summarizing all the mentioned above it should be stated that the problem of the overpopulation causes other different problems. Such problems like the deficit of the mineral resources, fresh water of food. However, these problems appear only in the developing countries. Also, it should be mentioned that the latest technologies like 3d printing and the energy catalyzer developed by Andrea Rossi in future will help solve problems that caused by the lack of different kinds of resources. Thus, the problem of the overpopulation can be solved with the development of the science.
Coleman, Jasmine. World's 'seven billionth baby' is born. 31 10 2011. 7 2 2015.
Gibbs, Mark. Hello Cheap Energy, Hello Brave New World. 17 10 2011. 7 2 2015. <http://www.forbes.com/sites/markgibbs/2011/10/17/hello-cheap-energy-hello-brave-new-world/>.
Stephenson, Wesley. Do the dead outnumber the living? 4 2 2012. 7 2 2015.
The Central Intelligence Agency. The World Factbook. 7 2014. 7 2 2015.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division. World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations, 2010.
United Nnation Population Fund. United Nnation Population Fund. 8 2010. 7 2 2015.
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